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Uncertainty and Risk
Author: Gabriele Bammer, Michael Smithson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1136549854
Pages: 400
Year: 2012-05-04
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This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schubert, Head of the Institute for Environmental Decisions and Chair of Economics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology This comprehensive collection of disciplinary perspectives on uncertainty is a definitive guide to contemporary insights into this Achilles heel of modernity and the endemic hubris of institutional science in its role as public authority. It gives firm foundations to the fundamental historic shift now underway in the world, towards normalizing acceptance of the immanent condition of ignorance and of its practical corollaries: contingency, uncontrol, and respect for difference. Brian Wynne, Professor of Science Studies, Lancaster University Bammer and Smithson have assembled a fascinating, important collection of papers on uncertainty and its management. The integrative nature of Uncertainty and Risk makes it a landmark in the intellectual history of this vital cross-disciplinary concept. George Cvetkovich, Director, Center for Cross-Cultural Research, Western Washington University Uncertainty governs our lives. From the unknowns of living with the risks of terrorism to developing policies on genetically modified foods, or disaster planning for catastrophic climate change, how we conceptualize, evaluate and cope with uncertainty drives our actions and deployment of resources, decisions and priorities. In this thorough and wide-ranging volume, theoretical perspectives are drawn from art history, complexity science, economics, futures, history, law, philosophy, physics, psychology, statistics and theology. On a practical level, uncertainty is examined in emergency management, intelligence, law enforcement, music, policy and politics. Key problems that are a subject of focus are environmental management, communicable diseases and illicit drugs. Opening and closing sections of the book provide major conceptual strands in uncertainty thinking and develop an integrated view of the nature of uncertainty, uncertainty as a motivating or de-motivating force, and strategies for coping and managing under uncertainty.
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit
Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Courier Corporation
ISBN: 0486147932
Pages: 448
Year: 2012-03-09
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DIVThis enduring economics text provided the theoretical basis of the entrepreneurial American economy during the post-industrial era. A revolutionary work, it taught the world how to systematically distinguish between risk and uncertainty. /div
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Author: Terje Aven, Enrico Zio, Piero Baraldi, Roger Flage
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118763068
Pages: 200
Year: 2013-12-17
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Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Mark Machina, W. Kip Viscusi
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0444536868
Pages: 896
Year: 2013-11-14
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The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Uncertainty and Risk
Author: Mohammed Abdellaoui, R. Duncan Luce, Mark Machina, Bertrand Munier
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540489355
Pages: 308
Year: 2007-08-10
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This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection rather than on mere intuition.
Managing Water Under Uncertainty and Risk: United Nations World Water Development Report #4 (3 Vols.)
Author: UNESCO
Publisher: UNESCO
ISBN: 9231042351
Pages:
Year:
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Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Richard Friberg
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262528193
Pages: 400
Year: 2015-11-20
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A comprehensive framework for assessing strategies for managing risk and uncertainty, integrating theory and practice and synthesizing insights from many fields.
Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk
Author: Marjolein Van Asselt
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9401725837
Pages: 436
Year: 2013-03-09
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This volume is intended to stimulate a change in the practice of decision support, advocating an interdisciplinary approach centred on both social and natural sciences, both theory and practice. It addresses the issue of analysis and management of uncertainty and risk in decision support corresponding to the aims of Integrated Assessment. A pluralistic method is necessary to account for legitimate plural interpretations of uncertainty and multiple risk perceptions. A wide range of methods and tools is presented to contribute to adequate and effective pluralistic uncertainty management and risk analysis in decision support endeavours. Special attention is given to the development of one such approach, the Pluralistic fRamework for Integrated uncertainty Management and risk Analysis (PRIMA), of which the practical value is explored in the context of the Environmental Outlooks produced by the Dutch Institute for Public Health and Environment (RIVM). Audience: This book will be of interest to researchers and practitioners whose work involves decision support, uncertainty management, risk analysis, environmental planning, and Integrated Assessment.
Policy uncertainty and risk
Author: Tomas Hellström, Merle Jacob
Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub
ISBN: 0792372344
Pages: 135
Year: 2001
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Policy Uncertainty and Risk presents a contribution to risk analysis and risk management in public policy and management at large. Special emphasis is put on the utilization of scientific knowledge by decision-makers in instances where knowledge in both spheres of science and administration is highly uncertain and contested. The book therefore contributes a model of science-practitioner interaction in a policy area of strong current relevance. The perspective is a realist constructivist one, which means that risk and policy are taken to be socially predicated insofar as we can choose and change the way we define and interact with its practices. It is realist insofar as we continually use such constructions to re-define and re-structure the world we live in. Although essentially theory-driven and conceptually oriented, the authors develop their argument for a new interpretation of policy-relevant science through a number of pressing case studies. These studies include the recent BSE/CJD crises in the UK, the introduction of Marine Protected Areas in Sweden, and the current practices surrounding risk management in corporate bodies. Drawing on empirical cases and theoretical explication, the book provides a number of suggestions as to how risk analysis and risk management may be more properly conceived of both from a practitioner as well as from an academic point of view.
Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Author: Bilal M. Ayyub
Publisher: ASCE Publications
ISBN: 0784411700
Pages: 1020
Year: 2011-04-06
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Proceedings of the International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM 2011) and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA 2011), held in Hyattsville, Maryland, April 11-13, 2011. Sponsored by the Council on Disaster Risk Management of ASCE. This collection contains 119 peer-reviewed papers that build upon recent significant advances in the modeling, analysis, and management of risk, vulnerability, and uncertainty. Yet, even as advancements are made in technology, new hazards appear. These papers demonstrate the transformation of intellectual discussions into robust frameworks for handling emerging vulnerabilities and risks and providing analytical bases to prepare for national and international disasters. These papers will be valuable to experts, decision-makers, and others involved in assessing, planning responses to, and managing vulnerability and risk.
Investment Risk and Uncertainty
Author: Steven P. Greiner
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118421418
Pages: 608
Year: 2013-03-14
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Valuable insights on the major methods used in today's asset and risk management arena Risk management has moved to the forefront of asset management since the credit crisis. However, most coverage of this subject is overly complicated, misunderstood, and extremely hard to apply. That's why Steven Greiner—a financial professional with over twenty years of quantitative and modeling experience—has written Investment Risk and Uncertainty. With this book, he skillfully reduces the complexity of risk management methodologies applied across many asset classes through practical examples of when to use what. Along the way, Greiner explores how particular methods can lower risk and mitigate losses. He also discusses how to stress test your portfolio and remove the exposure to regular risks and those from "Black Swan" events. More than just an explanation of specific risk issues, this reliable resource provides practical "off-the-shelf" applications that will allow the intelligent investor to understand their risks, their sources, and how to hedge those risks. Covers modern methods applied in risk management for many different asset classes Details the risk measurements of truly multi-asset class portfolios, while bridging the gap for managers in various disciplines—from equity and fixed income investors to currency and commodity investors Examines risk management algorithms for multi-asset class managers as well as risk managers, addressing new compliance issues and how to meet them The theory of risk management is hardly ever spelled out in practical applications that portfolio managers, pension fund advisors, and consultants can make use of. This book fills that void and will put you in a better position to confidently face the investment risks and uncertainties found in today's dynamic markets.
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making
Author: V.T. Covello, Lester B. Lave, A. Alan Moghissi, V.R.R. Uppuluri
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1468453173
Pages: 548
Year: 2013-03-08
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The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Risk, Uncertainty and Rational Action
Author: Carlo C. Jaeger, Thomas Webler, Eugene A. Rosa, Ortwin Renn
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134203020
Pages: 320
Year: 2013-11-05
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Risk as we now know it is a wholly new phenomenon, the by-product of our ever more complex and powerful technologies. In business, policy making, and in everyday life, it demands a new way of looking at technological and environmental uncertainty. In this definitive volume, four of the world's leading risk researchers present a fundamental critique of the prevailing approaches to understanding and managing risk - the 'rational actor paradigm'. They show how risk studies must incorporate the competing interests, values, and rationalities of those involved and find a balance of trust and acceptable risk. Their work points to a comprehensive and significant new theory of risk and uncertainty and of the decision making process they require. The implications for social, political, and environmental theory and practice are enormous. Winner of the 2000-2002 Outstanding Publication Award of the Section on Environment and Technology of the American Sociological Association
Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk
Author: Nick Firoozye, Fauziah Ariff
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137334541
Pages: 265
Year: 2016-04-20
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Managing Uncertainty, Mitigating Risk proposes that financial risk management broaden its approach, maintaining quantification where possible, but incorporating uncertainty. The author shows that by using broad quantification techniques, and using reason as the guiding principle, practitioners can see a more holistic and complete picture.
Trust, Risk and Uncertainty
Author: S. Watson, A. Moran
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230506038
Pages: 275
Year: 2005-06-07
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The themes 'trust', 'risk ' and 'uncertainty' seem especially pertinent in the context of the post-9/11 world. This book brings together a range of new research with a focus on the 'risk society' debate and on the themes of 'trust', 'uncertainty' and 'ambivalence'. Where much of the work within these crucial debates in the social sciences has been theory-based and theory-driven, Trust, Risk and Uncertainty combines theoretical sophistication with empirical analysis and research in the fields of philosophy, education, social policy, government, health and social care, sociology, and media and cultural studies.

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